Brief #1 - okładka

Heat, mass migration and CO2 levels

This year could be the hottest on record, although it will also be the one with the highest reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. According to scientists, there is a 75% chance that every year in the coming decade will be among the ten warmest since the measuring started. By 2035 we may observe ice-free summers in the Arctic. Some of the global changes could have a heat-related impact on human cognitive abilities and motor skills. Healthwise, the most affected will be the poorest countries.

Unless CO₂ emission drops dramatically, by 2100 we will observe a rise in temperature by 3 degrees Celsius in comparison to the pre-industrial era. That is higher than the numbers set by the Paris climate change agreement in 2015 – 1.5 °C and 2 °C. Currently, Earth is 1.1 °C hotter than in the 1800s, but a new science update from the UN and the global science groups informs of almost one in four chance that one of the next five years will surpass the 1.5 °C limit – faster than expected in the 2018 UN report. That “increased the odds of extreme events that are unprecedented in our historical experience”, said Noah Diffenbaugh from Stanford University.

The climate crisis may result in the mass migration with 1.2 billion people from 31 countries on the move, according to the report released by a global think tank, Institute for Economics & Peace. The study assessed 157 states, with eight ecological risks. It found that 141 countries face at least one of them. Especially the countries ranked low on the peace index and the ones with a rapidly growing population were named as the least resilient to climate change. They are mostly found in Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, the Middle East, and North Africa regions. Sweden, Norway, Ireland, and 13 other countries faced no threat. The significant number of the displaced people most probably will look for shelter in the developed world.

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